Brazil economists raise inflation, rate forecasts after Lula reelection
The Focus survey now sees 2027 inflation at 4.76% and the Selic rate at 12.50% as investors brace for a central bank decision.
- On Tuesday, November 3, 2026, private-sector economists raised their forecasts for Brazil's inflation and interest rates in the first weekly central bank poll since President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's reelection on October 25.
- Lula's victory over right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, whom investors had viewed as the more market-friendly candidate, triggered a sharp selloff in Brazilian assets last week.
- The median forecast for inflation in 2027 jumped to 4.76% from 4.34%, while expectations for the central bank's benchmark interest rate for end-2026 increased to 13.50% from 13.25%.
- Polymarket traders currently price an 85.5% probability of no change to the 13.75% rate, as the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee, Copom, announces its decision on Wednesday, November 4.
- Brazil's central bank maintains an inflation target of 3%, though every year in the latest survey now sits above that level, while GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 fell to 1.76% and 1.2%, respectively.
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The median of the market economists' projections for Brazilian official inflation in 2026 rose from 5.19% to 5.22%, according to the report Focus, from the Central Bank (BC), released on Tuesday (3) with estimates collected until Friday (30). By 2027, the median of expectations for the National Index of Consumer Prices (IPCA) increased from 4.34% to 4.76%, and by 2028 advanced from 3.75% to 4%. The IPCA 12 months smoothed up from 4.53% to 4.96%.…
Brazil economists raise inflation, rate forecasts after Lula reelection
SAO PAULO, Nov 3 (Reuters) - Private-sector economists raised their forecasts for Brazil's inflation and interest rates in the first weekly central bank poll since left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's reelection on October 25, the survey s...
In the first projections released by BC (Central Bank) after the re-election of Lula (PT), financial market analysts raised inflation expectations to 2026 and the next three years.
After Lula's re-election, more than 100 financial institutions raise the projected inflation to 5.22% in 2026 and the dollar to R$ 5.34.
The financial market raised the projections for the main indicators of the Brazilian economy, especially for the Selic rate, which rose from 13.25% to 13.50% per year at the end of...
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