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Bond Market Flashes a Warning Not Seen Since 2007
A worsening global bond sell-off is pushing average yields to nearly 4%, levels unseen since 2007. Bloomberg's Global Aggregate Treasuries index rose eight basis points to 3.99% on Wednesday.
Mounting fiscal concerns and strong economic data drove a $70 billion five-year Treasury auction on Wednesday to its highest yield since 2006. The auction ranked second-worst since 2018, reflecting Washington's rising cost of servicing $40 trillion in debt.
Five-Year yields topped 5% on Wednesday for the first time since 2007, as traders ramped up bets on further Federal Reserve tightening. Swaps now fully reflect three quarter-point hikes over the next year, with significant hedging for a fourth.
Yield pressure spread to Asia on Thursday, as Australian three-year yields jumped 13 basis points to 5.07%, the highest since May 2011. Japan's 10-year yield hit its highest level since 1996 following a three-day market break.
Strategists at JPMorgan Chase and KKR see scope for yields to climb further as energy-driven inflation and heavy government borrowing persist. Padhraic Garvey, ING Groep's regional head of research for Americas, wrote the move is "likely far from over.
The "sell-off" in the Eurozone is slowing down, but yields remain near the highest levels in recent years - Pressure on France and Italy - The factors that drove the US 10-year bond to levels not seen since 2007