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Big bank changes RBA rate call as cost pressures ease

NAB now expects the Reserve Bank to keep rates at 4.35% through 2026 as slowing growth and softer cost pressures reduce the case for another hike.

  • National Australia Bank joined Commonwealth Bank and ANZ in forecasting the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold the cash rate at 4.35% for the rest of 2026, reversing previous predictions of further hikes.
  • Slowing economic momentum and softening labor market conditions prompted NAB chief economist Sally Auld and head of Australian economics Gareth Spence to revise their rate outlook, citing significant headwinds facing the country.
  • Consumer sentiment hit 80.6 in June according to the Westpac-Melbourne Institute survey, as cost-of-living pressures and federal budget tax changes weigh heavily on households.
  • Yet the 30-day inter-bank futures market still anticipates one more rate hike by year's end, a move that would push the cash rate to a 15-year high of 4.6%.
  • NAB senior economists project the Reserve Bank will likely commence cutting interest rates in the first half of next year, diverging from market speculation suggesting a final hike by Christmas.
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11 Articles

PerthNowPerthNow
+4 Reposted by 4 other sources
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Big bank changes RBA rate call as cost pressures ease

Slowing economic activity and softer price growth could convince the Reserve Bank to keep rates on hold, with inflation pressures weaker than initially feared.

·City of Perth, Australia
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7NEWS Australia7NEWS Australia
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The West AustralianThe West Australian
Lean Right

Shock as major bank tips rate cut while confidence plummets

‘The next move in the cash rate is likely to be down.’

·Australia
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ABC Australia broke the news in Australia on Monday, June 8, 2026.
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