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Storm Season Said to Be Below-Normal. Experts Say Prepare for Worst

NOAA cites El Niño and mixed Atlantic conditions as it forecasts 8-14 named storms, with 1-3 major hurricanes possible.

  • The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts 8-14 named storms for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, with 3-6 becoming hurricanes and 1-3 reaching major strength, reflecting a 55% chance of below-normal activity.
  • El Niño conditions, expected with 98% probability and 80% chance of moderate to strong intensity, will increase Atlantic wind shear and disrupt storm development patterns, according to NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs.
  • National Weather Service Director Ken Graham cautioned that a strong El Niño in 2023 still produced the Atlantic's fourth busiest season with Hurricane Idalia, while climate advocate Monica Medina warned of 'lots of reasons to be concerned about the season' given warming oceans.
  • Graham stressed that 'It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season' and urged residents to review hurricane preparedness plans now, emphasizing that all storms warrant attention regardless of predicted activity levels.
  • Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick highlighted advanced modeling and hurricane-tracking technology for real-time forecasts as the June 1 season launch approaches, with residents across Hawaii, California, the Southwest, and Gulf Coast regions also advised to prepare through November 30.
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The forecast for a less active hurricane season in the Atlantic is mainly attributed to the expected intensification of El Niño over the coming months, whose conditions tend to favor the formation of fewer tropical storms and hurricanes in this basin.

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Palm Beach Post broke the news on Monday, May 25, 2026.
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