Brazil Halts Rate Cuts at 13.75% in November
The bank said it will keep policy restrictive as inflation stays above its 4.5% ceiling and December’s next move remains uncertain.
- On Wednesday, November 4, 2026, Brazil's central bank, Copom, voted unanimously to hold the benchmark Selic rate at 13.75%, halting five consecutive quarter-point cuts that began in March.
- Policymakers cited a need for "serenity and caution" as consumer prices rose 4.58% in the 12 months to September, exceeding the 4.5% tolerance ceiling around the 3% goal.
- The Ibovespa stock index fell 13.9% in one day following President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's re-election on October 25, signaling market anxiety about policy direction.
- Prediction platform Polymarket assigns a 73.0% probability to no change at the December 9 meeting, with 12.5% expecting a quarter-point cut and 5.1% anticipating a potential increase.
- Economists in the bank's weekly Focus survey project inflation of 5.2% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027, with the bank forecasting 3.5% for the second quarter of 2028.
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The chief economist of the BV, Roberto Padovani, states that the Central Bank recognized, in its decision to keep Selic unchanged at 13.75%, that the scenario is more challenging. According to him, the two factors indicated by the monetary authority for this evaluation are the increase in uncertainties and the worsening in inflation expectations. Still, he considers that the BC did not give clues about the next steps. Exclusive material for subs…
Brazil Holds Key Rate Steady at 13.75% After Lula’s Election Win
Brazil’s central bank held its interest rate steady, snapping a streak of five straight cuts after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s surprise reelection roiled financial markets and worsened the inflation outlook.
Brasilia, Nov 4 (Latin Press) The Central Bank of Brazil today maintained the basic interest rate Selic at 13.75 percent per year, which interrupted five consecutive reductions and opened a new debate on the impact on production and employment. The post Brazil: Central Bank slows down cuts and keeps the rate high Selic first appeared on Noticias Prensa Latina.
The tensions around the exchange and the climate phenomenon El Niño caused the Central Bank (BC) to set foot on the brake. By unanimity, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) maintained the Selic rate, basic economic interest, at 13.75% per year. In a statement, the Copom reported that uncertainties have widened in recent weeks and inflation expectations continue to rise above the target. The organ did not give any clues about the trajectory of …
Copom maintains Selic at 13.75% per year unanimously and interrupts the sequence of five consecutive cuts started in March 2026
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