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Bank of Canada governing council says trade uncertainty clouding outlook

The Bank of Canada holds the policy rate at 2.25% amid trade uncertainty from CUSMA talks, noting economic resilience but cautioning on risks to growth and inflation.

  • Bank of Canada governing council minutes released this week show trade uncertainty clouds the outlook and complicates the timing and direction of the next policy rate after holding it at 2.25 per cent earlier this month.
  • The governing council identified CUSMA negotiations as a major uncertainty, discussing scenarios from a dissolution with higher tariffs to a resolution that could spur business investment.
  • Statistics Canada figures show GDP expanded by 2.6 per cent in the third quarter, exceeding forecasts, while the unemployment rate fell to 6.5 per cent in November with mostly part‑time job gains.
  • Members agreed the current policy rate was about right and said the governing council will assess incoming data, preparing to respond if outlooks change and warning uncertainty will weigh on business investment.
  • Core inflation measures point to gradual easing in the coming months, though policymakers noted inflation may rise slightly in the new year due to the temporary HST/GST holiday while GDP growth is expected moderate in 2026.
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Will the Bank of Canada's next move be a decline or a rise in the policy rate? The Bank of Canada's leaders asked themselves the question before deciding to maintain the rate at 2.25% on December 10.

·Montreal, Canada
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Bank of Canada governing council says trade uncertainty clouding outlook

The Bank of Canada's governing council says it's difficult to predict which direction interest rates may go as trade uncertainty clouds its outlook.

·Toronto, Canada
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The Record broke the news in Waterloo, Canada on Tuesday, December 23, 2025.
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