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Global oil supply to plunge below demand this year on Iran war, IEA says

  • On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency reported that global oil supply will fail to meet total demand this year due to the Iran war disrupting Middle East oil production.
  • Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz to Gulf oil and gas exports followed US-Israeli strikes, forcing countries worldwide to tap strategic reserves at a 'record pace,' the IEA said.
  • Cumulative supply losses from Gulf producers exceed 1 billion barrels, with more than 14 million barrels per day shut in; around 164 million barrels have been drawn from emergency stocks.
  • German politician Laschet said the war has cost the global economy €30 billion so far, while the IEA warned that 'rapidly shrinking buffers' may herald future price spikes ahead of peak summer demand.
  • Forecasting a supply deficit of around 3.9 million barrels per day across 2026, the IEA warned that deteriorating economic conditions and demand-saving measures will further weigh on global consumption.
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Engineering News broke the news on Wednesday, May 13, 2026.
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