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China’s economy looks more resilient than it feels as a property slump drags on

This year, China logged record exports of $3.4 trillion in the first 11 months versus $2.3 trillion in imports, yet Chinese households report economic strain.
After a crackdown on excessive borrowing in real estate, housing prices have fallen 20% or more since their 2021 peak, with new home sales down 11.2% by value in the first 11 months of this year.
Concrete household losses include Beijing billiards hall owner Xiao Feng's Tongzhou district apartment value about $342,000, down from over 3 million yuan in 2019, with income previously around 100,000 yuan annually.
Tutors and small-business owners report steep income drops—Zhou, Tianjin-based tutor, saw earnings fall over a third, while Zhai, budget hotel owner in Shijiazhuang, warns of possible closure by May or June.
Weak domestic indicators such as retail sales and fixed-asset investment show forecasters project slower growth in 2026, with Capital Economics at 3%–more than 20%, and Rhodium Group at 2.5%–3%, while retail sales rose only 1.3% in November.

Insights by Ground AI