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New Flu Mutation Raises Concerns as Cases Rise Earlier Than Usual
The H1N1 variant carries a mutation that helps it evade immunity, and experts say this season is running about four weeks ahead of recent years.
The 2026 flu season began 2½ months early, hitting the Pacific states first with H1N1 representing about 98% of samples, according to Dr. Alex Greninger, head of the Division of Infectious Disease Diagnostics at the University of Washington's Department of Laboratory Medicine.
Typically, the flu season starts in the South, arriving from the Southern Hemisphere; this year, Walgreens reports the season is tracking about four weeks ahead of recent years, spreading eastward from the West Coast across the United States.
Data from the state Department of Public Health shows roughly 1 in 10 people tested in Washington state last week was positive, while the Pacific region reached at least 10% test positivity overall.
Dr. Alex Greninger advises getting vaccinated as soon as possible, though current vaccine strains were selected in the spring before the new viral variant emerged, limiting their effectiveness.
Greninger warns a second wave of H1N1 could follow the peak in January or February, noting this mutated strain previously caused school and day-care closures in Japan, prompting officials to accelerate vaccination clinics.