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A Falcon 9 upper stage will strike the Moon in August

Bill Gray said astronomers have logged 1,053 observations of the rocket stage, which is expected to hit the lunar surface intact.

  • On August 5, 2026, a discarded Falcon 9 upper stage will strike the moon near the Einstein crater, according to independent orbital analyst Bill Gray. The rocket body is projected to hit at roughly 5,400 mph.
  • Following a January 15, 2025, SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, the object deployed the Firefly Blue Ghost and ispace Hakuto-R lunar landers. Since then, the 45-foot-tall upper stage has remained in a highly elliptical orbit around the Earth-moon system.
  • Using Project Pluto tracking software, Bill Gray confirmed the trajectory via asteroid survey observations. He noted the collision highlights "a certain carelessness about how leftover space hardware is disposed of," though the debris poses no danger to current missions.
  • While the event may be of "minor scientific interest" if it creates a new crater, the impact flash will likely be too faint for Earth-based telescopes to observe. The collision is predicted for 2:44 a.m. Eastern time.
  • Tracking high-altitude space junk becomes increasingly vital as international agencies plan annual lunar missions starting in 2028. Gray noted that future human activity on the lunar surface could raise the stakes for managing discarded hardware in high orbit.
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Ars Technica broke the news in United States on Wednesday, April 29, 2026.
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