Australia Forecasts Deaths Will Outnumber Births in 2060s
Australia
Hollie Adams/Reuters
What Happened
Key Implications
What Happened
Key Implications
Where Sources Agree
- arrows_inputDemographic Milestone Projected: Sources verify that Australia is projected to see deaths outnumber births for the first time by the 2060s as the fertility rate falls to 1.34, according to the Treasury Intergenerational Report.
- arrows_inputMigration and Demographic Resilience: Coverage documents confirm that Australia relies on skilled migration to offset declining birth rates, providing a crucial source of demographic resilience against an aging workforce, according to the latest Intergenerational Report from the Treasury.
Where Sources Disagree
- arrows_outputProductivity Growth Projections: The government's Intergenerational Report assumes annual productivity growth will rise to 1.2%, citing potential gains from artificial intelligence. In contrast, some economists and business groups criticize this projection as unrealistic, noting that Australia's average productivity growth has been only 0.8% over the past two decades.
- arrows_outputEconomic Outlook Credibility: While the government contends Australia is better positioned than peer nations to navigate future demographic shifts, opposition leaders and some economists argue the report relies on overly optimistic, "cooked-book" assumptions regarding long-term productivity growth to inflate the economic outlook.
Timeline
September 21, 2026
Political Reaction and Policy Stakes: Opposition figures criticised the report's assumptions and warned of 'cooking the books', while debate intensified over migration settings—Treasury and commentators said skilled migration is key to demographic resilience and that lower migration or fertility will strain budgets, health and aged care. The report's findings fuelled political arguments over migration caps and future budget pressures.
September 21, 2026
Economic and Technology Outlook: The report predicts the economy could be more than twice its current size in 40 years, credits AI and other technologies as central drivers, and assumes productivity growth of about 1.2% annually while warning the budget will be strained though in a stronger position than in 2023. Some economists criticised the optimism in productivity assumptions given recent slower growth.
September 21, 2026
Demographic Projections Announced: The IGR projects population growth will slow to about 0.9% a year and forecasts roughly 39.3 million people by 2065‑66, with fertility falling to about 1.34 and deaths projected to outnumber births by the 2060s; median age rises to about 45 and the share aged 85+ is set to triple. These shifts mark a faster ageing and smaller natural increase than projected in the 2023 report.
Perspectives and Debates
Can productivity gains be relied on to offset the costs of population ageing?
Summary by Ground AI
Sources
See All 42A varied selection of sources chosen by Ground to reflect the diversity of this story’s coverage.
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Timeline
September 21, 2026
Political Reaction and Policy Stakes: Opposition figures criticised the report's assumptions and warned of 'cooking the books', while debate intensified over migration settings—Treasury and commentators said skilled migration is key to demographic resilience and that lower migration or fertility will strain budgets, health and aged care. The report's findings fuelled political arguments over migration caps and future budget pressures.
September 21, 2026
Economic and Technology Outlook: The report predicts the economy could be more than twice its current size in 40 years, credits AI and other technologies as central drivers, and assumes productivity growth of about 1.2% annually while warning the budget will be strained though in a stronger position than in 2023. Some economists criticised the optimism in productivity assumptions given recent slower growth.
September 21, 2026
Demographic Projections Announced: The IGR projects population growth will slow to about 0.9% a year and forecasts roughly 39.3 million people by 2065‑66, with fertility falling to about 1.34 and deaths projected to outnumber births by the 2060s; median age rises to about 45 and the share aged 85+ is set to triple. These shifts mark a faster ageing and smaller natural increase than projected in the 2023 report.
