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Flu Cases Are Rising Earlier This Year — Here's What that Means

CDC surveillance shows an early flu wave, while a new mRNA shot is up to 27% more effective than current vaccines, researchers said.

  • National clinical surveillance data from the CDC shows an uptick in flu cases across the U.S. in recent weeks, with flu activity "rearing its head early" this season, according to epidemiologist Emily Martin at University of Michigan School of Public Health.
  • Flu vaccination among children fell from 63% in 2019-2020 to 50% in 2024-2025, a 13-percentage-point drop coinciding with last year's particularly active season that produced the highest hospitalization rate in children 5 to 17 years old since 2009-2010.
  • CDC estimates show vaccination prevented 10 million illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations, and 12,000 deaths during 2024-2025, while shots reduce doctor visits by 40 to 60 percent and lower child mortality risk by 80 percent; Moderna's mRNA-based vaccine mFlusiva proved up to 27% more effective than existing shots.
  • Despite Trump Administration attempts in recent months to weaken flu vaccine recommendations, the CDC, AMA, and AAP maintain unchanged guidance urging vaccination for everyone 6 months and older; doctors and vaccine scientists say these moves have sown confusion and skepticism.
  • Vaccines take about two weeks to become fully effective, making now the ideal time to get inoculated for protection through peak flu months in January and February; shots are available free or low-cost at doctors' offices, pharmacies, clinics, and community health programs.
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Flu cases are rising earlier this year — here's what that means

Doctors are already seeing flu cases, and say getting vaccinated sooner is better because the shot takes about two weeks to kick in.

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The Washington Post broke the news in Washington, United States on Sunday, October 4, 2026.
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