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Why Khamenei’s death is unlikely to mean the end of the Islamic regime

Khamenei’s decades-long consolidation of power and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ influence maintain regime stability despite internal unrest and external military pressures.

  • Saturday's death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, occurred amid the opening salvo of a U.S.-Israeli military campaign targeting the regime.
  • After his 1989 elevation, Khamenei moved to centralize authority by seizing media control, sidelining rivals, hollowing out state institutions, and empowering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
  • Those groups, once a strategic buffer, have been weakened since October 7, 2023, with Hamas and Hezbollah suffering heavy losses and neither declaring renewed wars after Khamenei's death.
  • Khamenei's rule faced escalating domestic unrest as brutal crackdowns, including murders in prisons and streets, met growing demands by Iranian protesters and disaffected youth between 1999 and 2026.
  • June 2025 strikes left Iran's nuclear program significantly degraded, and American negotiators met Iranian envoys in Khamenei's final days to pursue a deal limiting enrichment.
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Colonel José do Carmo explains that Ali Khamenei's death will not bring an end to the regime. Also highlights the importance of the Lages Base in the Azores: Portugal may suffer consequences?

·Portugal
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The Independent broke the news in London, United Kingdom on Sunday, March 1, 2026.
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