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Stark Warning on UK Grocery Costs as Prices Soar
ECIU data show just 1% of a food price shock unwinds after six months, leaving UK households with lasting higher costs.
A new report from the Climate Intelligence Unit warns that food price shocks rarely reverse fully, leaving households facing permanently higher costs. Using more than 30 years of UK data, researchers found only 1 per cent of original price increases unwind after six months.
Global events including the Middle East conflict and El Niño weather pattern are fueling sustained food inflation, with Chris Jaccarini, food and farming analyst at ECIU, citing how the latest conflict drives up oil, gas and fertiliser prices across supply chains.
Food prices are already more than 40 per cent higher than in mid-2021, on track to reach 50% higher by November, while lowest-income families with children now spend around 70 per cent of disposable income on healthy diets after housing costs.
The 'rocket and feathers' effect explains why prices shoot up like rockets but drift down like feathers, keeping prices permanently elevated; Anna Taylor, executive director of the Food Foundation, warned that food insecurity remains unacceptably high even after headlines move on.
Prevention rather than crisis response is essential, with Jaccarini arguing that reaching net zero and cutting fossil fuel reliance is the only cure; the Food Foundation proposes a Good Food Bill to build structural resilience, and Henry Dimbleby, former lead of the National Food Strategy, backs long-term reform.