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What to expect from the March jobs report — and when the war could hit hiring

Economists expect a 60,000 payroll gain, while Challenger data show 15,341 March cuts were tied to artificial intelligence.

  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March jobs report Friday, with economists projecting a modest 60,000 job gain and unemployment holding at 4.4%.
  • Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that announced layoffs increased in March, with artificial intelligence cited as the reason for 15,341 of the 60,620 planned cuts.
  • Private payrolls rose by 62,000 in March according to ADP, though health care accounted for 58,000 of those additions, masking underlying weakness in job quality.
  • EY-Parthenon senior economist Lydia Boussour described a largely frozen labor market for 2026, where employers remain hesitant to hire or fire workers amid geopolitical uncertainty.
  • Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Moody's Analytics recently raised recession odds to 40% over the next 12 months, citing surging energy costs and Middle East conflict risks.
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Bias Distribution

  • 77% of the sources are Center
77% Center

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Local 3 News broke the news in on Thursday, April 2, 2026.
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