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In Flare-up over Hormuz, a Hint at US-Iran Roller Coaster to Come

The two sides traded strikes after Iran said Article 5 lets it manage safe passage for commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

  • On Sunday, the United States and Iran pulled back from escalating attacks over the Strait of Hormuz, though both sides continue accusing the other of violating Article 5 of their June 17 Memorandum of Understanding.
  • The flare-up tested the fragile June 17 MoU, which requires Iran to "make arrangements using its best efforts for the safe passage of commercial vessels with no charge" for 60 days amid ongoing negotiations.
  • Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz plummeted following the weekend exchanges, with Kpler data showing only 38 commodity ships transited Saturday and 22 on Sunday, while around 500 vessels remain waiting.
  • During a visit to Baghdad, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated shipping would return to prewar capacity within 30 days, warning that alternative arrangements would "only lead to more complicated situations and delays."
  • Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House, warns the situation remains "very bumpy" as Iran views the strait as leverage, while Trump threatens the U.S. could be "forced to militarily complete the job.
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Bias Distribution

  • 38% of the sources are Center, 37% of the sources lean Right
38% Center

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Brave New Europe broke the news on Sunday, June 28, 2026.
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