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UK Inflation Set to Rebound as Energy Bills Surge

Economists forecast CPI inflation will rise to 2.9% in July as a 13% energy cap hike and heatwave-driven food costs feed through.

  • The Office for National Statistics will release July inflation figures on Wednesday showing Consumer Prices Index inflation rising to around 2.9% from 2.6% in June, driven largely by higher household energy costs.
  • Last month's 13% hike in Ofgem's energy price cap increased average annual gas and electricity bills by £221 to £1,862, adding substantial upward pressure to inflation and household budgets.
  • The Food and Drink Federation reported that recent heatwaves have hit "fruit, vegetable and grain supply," with crop shortages set to feed into supermarket prices, while industry warned earlier this year that Middle East conflict-driven food inflation could reach 10 per cent this year.
  • Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, forecasts The Bank of England will raise interest rates from 3.75% to 4% by year-end as the central bank carries out roughly one 25 basis point hike to combat overheating.
  • UK economic growth slowed to 0.4 per cent earlier this week amid higher prices and borrowing costs caused by the Iran war, with inflation projected to peak above 3% later this year as elevated energy prices and Strait of Hormuz gridlock persist.
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What impact will July’s energy price hike have on UK inflation figures?

Many experts are forecasting that Consumer Prices Index inflation will rise back up to 2.9% in July, from 2.6% in June.

·London, United Kingdom
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Western Morning News broke the news in Somerset, United Kingdom on Sunday, August 16, 2026.
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