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What could a supercharged El Nino mean for Canada?

Forecasters say the event could be the strongest in recent records, with a 37% chance of a very strong peak between November and January.

  • On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasted a likely El Nino emerging within three months, with a 37 per cent chance of a "very strong" event peaking between November and January.
  • El Nino occurs when trade winds weaken, allowing warm water in the equatorial Pacific to shift toward South America, a phenomenon typically peaking around Christmas.
  • Environment and Climate Change Canada research scientist Bill Merryfield noted that while El Nino often brings warmer winters to Western Canada, drier conditions remain a "toss up."
  • While El Nino could lead to "very extreme conditions" globally, Imperial College London scientist Friederike Otto warned that climate change remains a much stronger influence on weather extremes than natural variability.
  • Forecasters indicate this looming El Nino could be exceptionally strong, potentially pushing global temperatures past 2024 records while compounding the 1.4 C of warming already driven by fossil fuel consumption.
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The Toronto StarThe Toronto Star
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What could a supercharged El Nino mean for Canada?

Forecasters say a supercharged El Nino could mean hot and dry conditions to come for parts of Canada.

·Toronto, Canada
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  • 72% of the sources lean Left
72% Left

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Winnipeg Free Press broke the news in Winnipeg, Canada on Thursday, May 14, 2026.
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