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War in Iran led global emissions to fall this year, research finds
Researchers said the drop is driven mainly by an oil price shock from the Iran war, while land-use emissions still push total CO2 higher.
Global fossil-fuel CO2 emissions decreased 0.4% this year, according to scientists from the Global Carbon Project, a slight decline primarily driven by oil supply shocks stemming from the war in Iran.
The war in Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping artery for petroleum, causing oil emissions to drop nearly 2% while natural gas fell 0.3% and coal rose 0.6%.
Despite the fossil-fuel drop, overall carbon emissions rose 1% due to deforestation and human-caused peat fires increasing faster than fossil fuel burning decreased, with total emissions reaching 42.2 billion tons.
India saw fossil-fuel pollution surge 4.4% this year, while major polluters including China, the United States, Europe, and Japan showed about a 1% drop in emissions, according to the study.
Experts debate whether this decline represents a permanent shift or a temporary response to oil shocks, particularly as global emissions continue at a rate of about 1,335 tons per second.
The world has burned a little less natural gas and oil in the current year than in the previous year. Although other emissions have increased in the meantime, the expert gives rise to hope.