Fed Chair Refuses To Signal Another Rate Hike. Markets Are Betting On An October Pause.
Warsh said he would not precommit to a decision, while traders priced in an 86.2% chance the Fed leaves rates unchanged this month.
- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal whether the central bank would raise interest rates again this month during the International Monetary Fund Annual Meetings in Bangkok, defending his move away from advance policy guidance.
- September FOMC minutes released October 7 showed most participants believed another rate increase appropriate before year-end, as consumer prices rose 3.7% in September, accelerating from 3.4% in August.
- Despite recent inflation data, traders assigned an 86.2% probability to an October pause according to CME FedWatch, while Warsh described the global economic environment as a "synchronous tightening" with "no free riders" in restoring price stability.
- Goldman Sachs economists led by Jan Hatzius expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady this month, though they anticipate a final quarter-point increase in December; Warsh cautioned the AI transition would be "very bumpy."
- The International Monetary Fund warned Thursday that rising borrowing costs are increasing pressure on governments carrying substantial debt, with global public debt projected to exceed 100% of global gross domestic product by 2030, a level last recorded after World War II.
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Fed Minutes Show Another Rate Hike Is Likely This Year as Kevin Warsh's FOMC Battles Persistent Inflation. Here's Why That Signal Matters for Stocks and Bonds Heading Into Year-End.
Even if the Fed hikes interest rates again in 2026, long-term stock investors don't have to be scared.
Fast Approaching The BREAKING POINT
The bond market signals the Fed's need to hike rates amid rising real yields and inflation concerns. With October hike odds collapsing, markets question the Fed's independence and ability to act decisively. A credible rate hike could restore confidence and stabilize credit spreads, while political timidity risks worsening the AI financing crisis.
Fed Chair Refuses To Signal Another Rate Hike. Markets Are Betting On An October Pause.
The Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs in September for the first time since 2023. More recent data showed inflation is picking up as a result of increased energy prices.
The countdown has begun for the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) October 2026 interest rate decision. So, when will the Fed's interest rate decision be announced? What are the expectations for the October 2026 Fed interest rate decision?
US Fed Likely to Hold Rates in October, Hike by 25 Bps by Year-end: CareEdge Global
Get latest articles and stories on Business at LatestLY. The US Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in October before resuming monetary tightening, with markets pricing in a further 25 basis points (bps) hike by the end of 2026 and cumulative tightening of 75 bps by mid-2027, according to a commentary by CareEdge Global. Business News | US Fed Likely to Hold Rates in October, Hike by 25 Bps by Year-end: CareEdge Global.
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