UC Davis Study Projects 7% to 16% of Plant Species Face Extinction Risk by 2100
Researchers say habitat loss, not plant movement, drives the projected decline, and 28% of Earth’s surface may gain species richness.
- A University of California, Davis study published in the journal Science projects 7% to 16% of global plant species face extinction by 2100, driven by habitat loss rather than migration limitations.
- Senior author Professor Xiaoli Dong of the UC Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy explained that habitat disappearance, not plant movement speed, drives extinction rates as species must adapt to novel interactions in shifting ecosystems.
- Yale University's Junna Wang noted that wet regions like the eastern United States and India will gain species richness, while the western United States, Australia, and Europe face significant diversity losses as species' ranges shrink.
- Ancient lineages like California's spikemoss, dating back over 400 million years, and Australian eucalyptus face high extinction risks, threatening species vital to indigenous culture, timber industries, and biodiversity.
- Conservationists should prioritize seed banks and botanical gardens to preserve genetic value, as assisted migration alone may prove insufficient; aggressively cutting emissions remains the most critical action to reduce extinction rates, Dong emphasized.
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Eurek Alert
Study projects plant extinction rates through 2100
A UC Davis study in Science found that 7% to 16% of global plant species studied face high risk of extinction by 2100 under current climate change projections.
Why plant extinctions may rise by 2100 even if species keep shifting ranges
No matter how fast a species under threat can move, escape can only be successful if the new destination can meet its needs. An ecological modeling study from the University of California, Davis, found that 7% to 16% of global plant species studied are expected to lose more than 90% of their range, facing high risk of extinction by 2100 under current climate change projections.
A study by the University of California at Davis reveals that up to 16% of the plants analyzed are at risk of extinction by the year 2100. Habitat loss is the key factor threatening global flora in the next century.
Habitat loss, not displacement capacity, is profiled as the main factor
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