US EditionTrade Clarity to Help Canada’s Economy Rebound After Modest Recession: Deloitte
- On June 25, 2025, Deloitte Canada released a forecast anticipating a mild recession during the middle portion of the year, attributed to economic uncertainty stemming from the tariff conflict with the United States.
- This recession stems from increased U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum and ongoing trade uncertainty, although Canada secured tariff exemptions for CUSMA-compliant exports.
- The forecast notes that manufacturing weakness is spreading, with transportation, warehousing, and business services also reducing workforces while some provinces see growth from energy exports.
- Deloitte projects unemployment near 7.3% in fall 2025 before dropping below 7% early next year, with GDP growth of 1.1% in 2025 accelerating to 1.6% in 2026 despite the slowdown.
- Legislation known as Bill C-5 was recently approved by lawmakers to reduce barriers to trade between provinces and accelerate the approval process for major projects, with the goal of encouraging long-term investment even though the benefits may take several years to become evident.
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Trade Clarity to Help Canada’s Economy Rebound After Modest Recession: Deloitte
Some economists are putting an increasingly optimistic slant on Canada’s tariff dispute with the United States, arguing the economy should be able to avoid “worst-case” scenarios from the trade war. That doesn’t mean the Canadian economy gets off scot-free—a new forecast published by Deloitte Canada on Wednesday calls for a modest recession to hit in the second and third quarters of the year as uncertainty and weakness caused by tariffs start to…
·New York, United States
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Some economists are increasingly optimistic about the tariff dispute with the United States.
·Montreal, Canada
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Leaning Left14Leaning Right2Center5Last UpdatedBias Distribution67% Left
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L 67%
C 24%
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