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Top Valuation Expert Says SpaceX Not Worth Its $1.77T IPO Price
Damodaran says the deal assumes flawless execution across Starlink, rockets and AI, while his valuation model puts the company at $1.25 trillion to $1.35 trillion.
New York University finance professor Aswath Damodaran, often referred to as the 'Dean of Valuation,' says SpaceX's planned IPO is 'too richly priced.' He estimates the company's value between $1.25 trillion and $1.35 trillion, well below its $1.75 trillion target.
While SpaceX targets $1.77 trillion valuation, Damodaran told CNBC on Thursday that such a price is 'justified' only if one accepts the company's $1.2 trillion valuation from a few months ago as a private company.
Damodaran warned that an investment in SpaceX is a 'loaded bet on AI and Elon Musk,' noting that Musk-run companies involve 'huge distractions' and the AI business carries high capital expenditures.
SpaceX is bypassing traditional book building, setting a $135 'take it or leave it' share price. Retail investors may struggle to access this offering price, as many brokerage firms require significant account minimums.
Though Damodaran is 'more investor than trader,' he admits market momentum can shift pricing. He cited Facebook and Uber, which saw significant valuation swings in the year after their respective IPO debuts.