Too soon to call recession, rules Canadian authority on economic downturns
The council said two quarters of GDP decline are not enough because job gains and sector growth show the slowdown is not widespread.
- On Friday, the C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council declared it is too soon to call a recession in Canada, arguing that two consecutive quarters of GDP decline are insufficient to justify the label.
- Conservatives have blamed a 'full-blown recession' on the Liberal government during recent debate on Parliament Hill, while Prime Minister Mark Carney argues growth will remain uneven as the government pivots away from United States reliance.
- Statistics Canada reported Friday that the Canadian economy added 88,000 jobs in May, lowering the unemployment rate to 6.6% from 6.9% in April, while GDP increased in more than half of economic sectors during the first quarter.
- Steve Ambler, co-chair of the C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council, dismissed the term 'technical recession' as a mere rule of thumb, noting that such labels are designed to sound scarier than economic data warrants.
- The Business Cycle Council remains ready to reconvene should broad-based economic strain emerge, even as the upcoming CUSMA review continues to fuel concerns about Canada's economic growth over the next few quarters.
42 Articles
42 Articles
C.D Howe. Institute Says ‘Too Early’ to Declare Canada Is in Recession
The C.D. Howe Institute says it’s too soon to conclude that Canada has entered a recession, after the latest data from Statistics Canada showed the economy contracted for two consecutive quarters, meeting the common definition of a technical recession. The institute’s Business Cycle Council, widely seen as the authority on recessions in Canada, said on June 5 that it doesn’t accept the definition of a recession as two straight quarters of declin…
Too soon to declare a recession, says Canada's unofficial authority on calling them
The C.D. Howe Institute's Business Cycle Council, which is traditionally viewed as the arbiter for calling a recession in Canada, says it does not accept two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction as the definition of a technical recession.
The weakness of the economy is not yet widespread or persistent enough, according to the unofficial expert on the subject.
Carney acknowledges ‘weakness’ in Canadian economy after moving into a ‘technical recession’ - Commonwealth Union
Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged that the Canadian economy was weak while defending the federal government’s economic agenda on Tuesday, June 2, 2026. However, he stopped short of using the word “recession.” When reporters in Ottawa directly asked Carney whether Canada was in a recession, he responded that the government was focused on laying the foundations for a stronger, more resilient, and more independent Canadian economy. He said th…
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