Climate Impact Lab Projects 451,000 Extra Heat Deaths From El Niño
Researchers say emergency heat measures could save tens of thousands of lives as the strongest El Niño on record drives 44% more extreme hot days.
- On Wednesday, September 23, 2026, the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab released a study projecting 451,000 excess heat-related deaths worldwide through February 2027 from the ongoing Super El Niño.
- Researchers describe this Super El Niño as a "postcard from the future," noting it mirrors conditions climate change will deliver in 20 years and will lead to 44% more extremely hot days than a typical year.
- Developing regions face the heaviest burden, with the Sahel projected to see 66,800 additional deaths, including 31,400 in Nigeria, while Southeast Asia faces 19,400 deaths, India 15,800, and Brazil 13,300.
- Climate Impact Lab co-founder Michael Greenstone noted that "emergency actions can be taken now" to save tens of thousands of lives through heat-warning systems, cooling centers, and anticipatory financing.
- Elevated heat-related mortality may persist beyond February 2027, particularly in India and Pakistan during their summer months, requiring emergency planning to extend into mid-2027 to address prolonged seasonal heat.
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A huge climate phenomenon is forming in the Pacific. NOAA speaks of a "very strong" El Niño episode. The consequences could mean hundreds of thousands of additional heat deaths worldwide.
Nigeria Faces the World's Highest Projected Death Toll From Super El Niño Heat - What Could Save Lives
Analysis - Researchers at the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab combined temperature forecasts with research on how heat affects death rates in more than 24,000 regions worldwide, and found that the super El Niño could cause an estimated 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide between now and February 2027. Michael Greenstone was part of the research team along with Tamma Carleton, Genevieve Maricle and Emily Grover-Kopec. He explains …
Researchers at the University of Chicago have warned that global high temperatures caused by El Niño could result in 450,000 deaths. El Niño is a phenomenon in which rising sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific alter atmospheric currents, triggering global climate change. The domestic meteorological community maintains that while El Niño is a key piece of the puzzle affecting Korea's weather, it cannot be definitively determined as …
The current exceptionally strong El Niño could lead to an estimated 450,000 premature deaths, according to a new estimate. The additional heat is expected to have the greatest impact in poorer tropical regions. El Niño continues to strengthen rapidly and is increasingly likely to become the strongest episode on record.
Scientists: El Niño could kill 450,000 around globe
Spokane — Scientists at the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab are predicting that more than 450,000 people around the globe will die in the next few months from extreme heat brought on by this year’s “Godzilla-level” El Niño.
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