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Tight Runoff Race: Lula vs. Bolsonaro in Brazil

  • On Thursday, an AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll showed Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in a statistical tie for next month's simulated runoff, with the challenger holding a narrow lead within the survey's margin of error.
  • AtlasIntel surveyed 5,018 people between September 11 and 16 to gauge voter sentiment ahead of the October 4 election. If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes, the two frontrunners advance to an October 25 runoff.
  • In a first-round scenario, Lula would receive 44.1% of voter support, followed by Bolsonaro with 41.7%. Candidates Renan Santos and Augusto Cury trail with 5.1% and 3.5%, respectively, illustrating the competitive landscape.
  • Should the election reach a second round, the eldest son of President Jair Bolsonaro would receive 47.2% of voter support compared with 46.8% for the incumbent. The 1 percentage point margin of error indicates a highly competitive race.
  • The narrowing gap contrasts with a previous poll showing Lula at 43% and Bolsonaro at 37.4% in the first round. This shift underscores the uncertainty and volatility in voter sentiment as the election date approaches.
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·London, United Kingdom
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For the second week in a row, Jair Bolsonaro's son has a small numerical advantage

·São Paulo, Brazil
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Search AtlasIntel/Bloomberg shows Lula ahead in the 1st round, but Flavio Bolsonaro leads numerically in the 2nd round

In a September 10 poll, Bolsonaro appeared to be receiving ⁠46.4% compared to Lula's 46.2%.

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Metrópoles broke the news on Thursday, September 17, 2026.
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