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Will Skubal Sign Before Lockout?
Skubal’s elbow procedure and a possible lockout could shape his market, with one projection saying he will top the $325 million record for a free-agent pitcher.
On December 1, Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred could implement a league-wide lockout, potentially freezing the free-agent market during peak signing season.
Pitcher Tarik Skubal posted a 12-7 record with a 2.73 ERA over 158 2/3 innings in 2026, positioning him to exceed the $325 million free-agent pitcher record.
Uncertainty regarding the collective bargaining agreement could delay major signings, as negotiations between players and owners remain stalled over salary cap disputes heading into the December deadline.
Salary cap debates remain central to ongoing friction between players and owners, with both sides seeking favorable terms as the December 1 deadline looms without resolution.
A lockout would effectively suspend all offseason transactions, casting doubt on the 2027 season's start time and forcing clubs and players into a holding pattern until resolution.