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SpaceX Stock Faces 2 Massive Tests This Week. One Could Triple Its Public Float

Bearish bets reached $23.6 billion as investors brace for 206 million shares shorted and a first insider lockup release this week.

  • Short sellers now hold an estimated 206 million SpaceX shares ahead of Tuesday's quarterly results and Thursday's first insider lockup expiration, following a stunning reversal that saw the stock lose over 50% since its June debut.
  • Notional short interest in SpaceX has climbed to about $23.6 billion, overtaking Tesla's roughly $22 billion, a development notable because the electric-vehicle maker has long been one of Wall Street's favorite targets.
  • The first lockup expiration this week will make roughly 20% to 30% of previously restricted insider shares eligible for sale, according to Bernstein, with staggered releases of about 7% of total shares following through October.
  • "We have found many investors unwilling to buy SpaceX shares in the interim, based on fundamentals, given the lockup overhang that will exist at least into December," Bernstein analysts said; unlike Tesla, SpaceX remains excluded from major equity indexes.
  • By December, those events could increase the public float to as much as 40% of shares outstanding, as the company has lost more than $500 billion in market value since its first trade in June.
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SpaceX’s shares will soon be released from the bonds. On Thursday the first period of restriction of sale of shares by Elon Musk’s rocket company expires, which means that employees and other managers who were unable to negotiate with the shares after SpaceX’s stock sale in June will be able to do so. These restrictions will be implemented after an initial public offer to prevent the shares from flooding the market and causing a fall in its pric…

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ts2.tech broke the news on Sunday, August 2, 2026.
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