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CIA Assessment: Revolutionary Guard Would Replace Ayatollah if He's Killed, Reuters Reports

CIA analysis finds hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps figures would likely succeed Khamenei, complicating U.S. goals of regime change amid ongoing nuclear talks.

  • The CIA assessed that if Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed, IRGC hardliners would likely replace him.
  • After deadly December protests, U.S. deliberations included seeking a nuclear agreement with Tehran in recent weeks, but Geneva talks failed to produce a deal.
  • Produced over the past two weeks, the assessments examined scenarios in Iran and Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the Gang of Eight last week that an operation was likely but could be reversed.
  • In an early morning video address on Saturday, Trump signaled U.S. interest in regime change and described Tehran as a 'terrorist regime' while urging the Iranian people to take over the government.
  • The CIA declined to comment while anonymous sources said the intelligence reports did not reach firm conclusions and the IRGC remains an elite force protecting clerical rule, shown in an Oct. 17, 2022 IRGC drill.
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CIA: IRGC Likely to Replace Khamenei if Killed

·Washington, United States
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DECRYPTAGE - Several CIA sources claim that in the event of the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he would be replaced by a handful of radicals from the Revolutionary Guards.

·Paris, France
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  • 55% of the sources lean Right
55% Right

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Al-Monitor broke the news in Washington, United States on Saturday, February 28, 2026.
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