Prediction markets vs. polls: Who got the election right?

How accurately did polling and Polymarket data predict major election results?

Polymarket predicted Democrats would win a total of 210 seats in the House and at least 45 seats in the Senate.

Prediction markets cement their status after forecasting Democratic sweep of Congress

Prediction markets projected election results well before media outlets in an effort to position themselves as fast, reliable news sources.

Bettors vs. ballots: Prediction markets correctly bet on Democratic sweep

Prediction market users successfully bet on a blue wave -- with a reported 98% success rate.

Prediction markets foresaw Democratic dominance in midterm elections

A dominant performance by Democrats in this week’s midterm elections created a political earthquake, shifting the balance of power in Washington, D.C., and offering a clear view of voter frustration with President Trump and his party.   But most of Tuesday’s results were foretold in the hours before polls closed. Online prediction market platforms, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, have proven capable in recent…

Prediction markets vs. polls: Who got the election right?

Prediction markets largely outperformed late polls in identifying the winners of several key races in Tuesday’s election.

Prediction Markets Are Betting On A Democratic Senate Sweep

From Texas to Alaska, bettors are predicting a Democratic takeover of key Senate races, and even Donald Trump doesn't sound particularly confident about his party's chances.