FirstFT: Traders Bet Against Sterling Ahead of UK Budget

Economy update: Market bets against pound as traders 'haven't heard good news' about Rachel Reeves's Budget

Chancellor Rachel Reeves faces extra pressure ahead of tomorrow's Budget as traders bet against the British pound with analysts claiming "they haven't head any good news"

FirstFT: Traders bet against sterling ahead of UK Budget

Also in today’s newsletter, Europe rushes to protect its security interests, and Ireland’s defence • Business • One News Page: Tuesday, 25 November 2025

Currency traders bet against sterling ahead of Reeves’ tax-raising Budget

Currency traders are increasing their bets against sterling ahead of Wednesday’s Budget, fearing that Rachel Reeves’ tax and spending plans could further weaken the UK’s already fragile economic outlook. Data from CME Group shows trading volumes in put options — contracts that profit from a fall in the pound — have outpaced bullish call options by more than four to one over the past week. The surge suggests investors are bracing for a Budget tha…

The pound treads water ahead of the Budget

CAD USDCAD was little changed on Monday, holding around 1.41 despite the broader dollar pullback. That is in keeping with our prior bias for the pair to trade sideways until Canada’s Q3 GDP release on Friday, with cross‑asset sentiment the primary driver for the pair. That remains the case: there are no domestic Canadian releases on today’s calendar, leaving traders focused on US data and global equity sentiment. Granted, the Canadian dollar cou…

The pound treads water ahead of the Budget

USD The dollar weakened modestly on Monday as markets raised the probability of a December Fed cut to around 85%, according to OIS pricing, after dovish comments from Governor Waller. This pushed the DXY back toward the 100-mark, and allowed EURUSD to consolidate above 1.15, though the dollar’s losses were limited by thin liquidity and a general lack of new data ahead of Thanksgiving. We had been warning that the lack of U.S. data this week is l…

Tensions rise at start of key week for sterling

Monday’s mood was one of anxious anticipation ahead of the crunch autumn Budget and a packed agenda of delayed US data. The pound traded in a narrow range against the euro and the US dollar. No significant news arrived that might have shifted the dial, but that could change fast as we get deeper into the week and closer to the chancellor’s massive fiscal set piece. The business environment worsened in Germany this month as companies showed littl…