How Well Did Polls Predict the Blue Wave?

Polls saw the Democratic wave. Here’s why they missed the tsunami

The polls had a decent night Tuesday in predicting Democratic wins, but fell short of projecting the blue tsunami that ultimately swept larger-than-expected Democratic majorities into power in the House and Senate.

How well did polls predict the blue wave?

NPR's Mary Louise Kelly speaks with Anna Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, about what polls captured (and underestimated) after Democrats performed stronger than expected in midterm elections.

Polls missed bigger on the midterms than in 2016

Democrats' midterm tsunami obscured a major polling miss: Surveys correctly anticipated a blue wave, but failed to capture its full force. Why it matters: Pollsters appear to have underestimated Democrats by a wider margin than they underestimated Republicans in 2016 or 2024 — even if they got the…