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Peggy Flanagan's Chances of Losing to Michele Tafoya in Minnesota: Polls

A new poll shows Flanagan ahead 48.2% to 44.4%, but the race remains within the margin of error as Democrats seek a Senate majority.

  • Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan maintains a narrow lead over Republican Michele Tafoya in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race, according to recent polling showing Flanagan ahead 48.2 percent to 44.4 percent.
  • The race to replace retiring Democrat Tina Smith remains competitive, with the contest falling within the margin of error less than two months before Election Day on November 3.
  • Demographic data reveals stark generational splits: Flanagan wins 63 percent of voters aged 30 to 44, while Tafoya leads among those 65 and older with 47 percent support.
  • Control of the Senate hangs in the balance, with Republicans currently holding a 53-47 majority and Democrats needing to flip four Republican-held seats to take the chamber.
  • Prediction markets currently give Flanagan a 90.3 percent chance of winning, though both candidates must appeal to independent voters, where they each hold 37 percent support.
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Twitchy broke the news in United States on Friday, September 11, 2026.
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