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Paxton trails Talarico by 2 points in new Texas Senate poll

The survey shows Talarico with 97% of Democrats and 63% of independents, while Paxton trails amid lingering concerns over his record.

  • On Tuesday, Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center released a poll showing Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 47% to 45% among 1,200 likely voters surveyed July 27–30.
  • Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in 32 years, yet this race shifts as Paxton faces scrutiny over his 2023 impeachment trial regarding alleged bribery and abuse of public trust.
  • Independent voters favor Talarico 63% to 23%, while 97% of Democrats back him compared to 85% of Republicans supporting Paxton, revealing party consolidation challenges for the attorney general.
  • Despite securing 79% support among Black voters, Talarico confronts ongoing friction as 77% of Black Texans believe the Democratic Party takes them "for granted" following the contentious March primary.
  • Prediction markets reflect the tightening race as Paxton's victory probability slipped to 52% on Tuesday from 59% one month earlier, while traders react to polling shifts and campaign developments.
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Breitbart broke the news in Los Angeles, United States on Tuesday, August 4, 2026.
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