Oxford Economics' Stress Test on the Contagion From a Debt Crisis in France — Greece Is Absolutely Resilient Even in a Severe French Shock

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Oxford Economics highlights the resilience of the Greek economy to a potential French debt crisis. Through a stress test for the Eurozone, it estimates that Greece will maintain positive growth even under intense bond turmoil. In contrast, France and Italy face greater pressures. However, the firm examines hypothetical risk scenarios and does not discount a crisis. Its baseline scenario predicts continued pressure, without a generalized economic…

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Oxford Economics estimates that the risk of a French debt crisis is likely. In this context, it is conducting stress tests on the resilience of the Eurozone economies in the event of a deterioration of the situation in France. Its scenarios suggest that if the country suffers a large enough rise in bond yields with some contagion to highly indebted countries, the impact will be extremely asymmetric across the Eurozone. France and Italy will expe…