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Asia braces for a second wave of energy shocks from the Iran war
Governments are cutting subsidies and tapping stockpiles as Brent crude rises to about $120 a barrel, threatening poverty and $299 billion in losses, the UNDP said.
Asia's initial defenses against energy shocks from the Iran war are failing as subsidies run short, forcing governments to choose between maintaining costly support programs or passing higher costs to consumers.
Budget plans for Asian governments assumed oil would average around $70 a barrel, but the conflict pushed Brent crude to about $120, while closure of the Strait of Hormuz forced rapid, unbudgeted adaptation.
To conserve fuel, the Philippines shifted to a four-day work week, while India redirects supplies for roughly 330 million households and Vietnam faces flight cuts threatening tourism, which makes up nearly 8% of GDP.
The United Nations Development Program projects $299 billion in economic losses for the Asia-Pacific region, pushing about 8.8 million people into poverty and creating what Kuala Lumpur-based analyst Ahmad Rafdi Endut calls a 'fiscal time bomb.'
Southeast Asia remains the 'biggest pain point,' said Henning Gloystein of the Eurasia Group, and governments are prioritizing longer-term solutions like diversifying fossil fuel suppliers and developing nuclear energy and renewables.