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Optimal Blue report: Non-QM bucks September slowdown as mortgage rates surge
Non-QM loans rose 8% as total rate-lock volume fell 2%, while refinance share dropped to 18% and ARM usage hit a series high.
On Tuesday, October 13, 2026, Optimal Blue released its September 2026 Market Advantage mortgage data report, showing non-QM lock volume increased 8% month over month despite total rate-lock volume declining 2%.
Mortgage rates surged across all products in September, with the OBMMI 30-year conforming fixed rate rising 67 basis points to 7.39%, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed 54 basis points to 5.29%.
Adjustable-Rate mortgages reached 14% of total volume, the highest share in Market Advantage data since 2019, as borrowers sought alternatives to conforming loans. Average locked loan amounts increased more than 2% to approximately $397,000.
Lenders rapidly adjusted hedging strategies as rates climbed, with the 5.5% coupon share falling from 62% to 50% while the 6.0% coupon climbed to 44%, said Mike Vough, Optimal Blue senior vice president of corporate strategy.
The Virtual Economist forecasts the 30-year conforming fixed rate will reach 7.66% next month, 7.80% over three months, and 7.85% over the coming year as rates continue climbing.