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OPEC expects balanced oil market in 2026, moving further away from deficit projection

OPEC+ plans to halt output increases in early 2026 as forecasts show a marginal surplus of 20,000 barrels per day, signaling a shift from previous deficit projections.

  • On Wednesday, OPEC said world oil supply is expected to match demand next year, and OPEC+ plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026 amid oversupply concerns.
  • OPEC's forecasts show its 2026 demand forecast for OPEC+ crude lowered by 100,000 bpd after revising 2025 production, differing from International Energy Agency estimates.
  • Reuters calculations indicate expected OPEC+ demand at 43.0 million bpd in 2026 implies a marginal surplus, as October output was cut by 73,000 bpd led by Kazakhstan.
  • The report shows the gap between OPEC and other forecasters is narrowing, while IEA forecasts imply supply could exceed demand by about 4 million bpd, or almost 4%.
  • Shifts from earlier reports show the global economy in 2025 has remained resilient, with last month projecting a 50,000 bpd deficit and September pointing to a 700,000 bpd shortfall.
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Barchart.com broke the news in on Wednesday, November 12, 2025.
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