Published 12 hours ago • loading... • Updated 2 hours ago
Odds of an interest rate hike from Bank of Canada this year have jumped
Markets now see the Oct. 28 decision as a coin flip after odds of a hold were 94% before the Bank of Canada's Sept. 2 meeting.
Traders are increasingly betting on an interest rate hike, with markets now seeing The Bank's Oct 28 meeting as a coin flip after odds shifted in favor on Thursday afternoon.
High oil prices tied to the war in Iran concern The Bank's Governing council, which agreed that sustained energy costs pose greater inflation risks the longer prices remain elevated.
"If there's one thing that's really causing the pricing of the October meeting & its oil prices," Claire Fan, senior economist at RBC, said. Rising bond yields reflect market expectations for The Bank to tighten policy.
On Wednesday, the United States Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike in more than three years, impacting global financial conditions as Lenders adjust borrowing costs on Canadian bonds.
Stephen Brown of Capital Economics said The Bank will "inevitably upgrade its inflation forecasts," though analysts expect it to remain on the sidelines until early 2027 before tightening.
Operators are increasingly betting on the fact that the Bank of Canada could end its set of interest rate status quo and raise it as early as next month.