Odds of a December Rate Hike Jump to 77% After a Blowout Jobs Report
- Nonfarm payrolls climbed by a seasonally adjusted 165,000 last month, way above the 59,000 expected by the Dow Jones consensus, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
- Treasury yields surged following the report, with the 10-year benchmark rising above 4.9%, while the CME Group's FedWatch tool shows Federal Reserve rate-hike odds climbed to almost 75% from 67% on Thursday.
- Broad hiring gains included 70,000 jobs in Professional and business services, 28,000 in Education and health services, and 39,000 in Trade, transportation and utilities. ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson noted the data suggests "solid growth."
- While headline unemployment decreased, The U-6 increased to 7.9% from 7.6%, as Mortgage Bankers Association senior vice president Mike Fratantoni observed some individuals took part-time work when preferring full-time positions.
- Recent strong data supports expectations for a Fed rate hike in December, though Realtor senior economist Jake Krimmel noted uncertainty remains about subsequent months given earlier hot inflation prints.
44 Articles
44 Articles
Odds of a December Rate Hike Jump to 77% After a Blowout Jobs Report
Stocks shrugged, Treasuries barely twitched, and yet the two-year yield told a different story. One hot jobs print has Fed watchers rethinking December, and the next CPI release could decide whether SPY holds its ground.
Federal Reserve rate hike bets strengthen as US jobs growth beats estimates
Stronger than expected US jobs growth has revived expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate hike, with employers adding 165,000 jobs in October against estimates of 65,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while markets raised the probability of a quarter point hike to 85% and brought forward expectations of another increase.
October Jobs Surge Lifts December Fed Hike Bets
The U.S. added 165,000 jobs in October, well above expectations, while unemployment fell to 4.1% and earlier payrolls were revised higher, signaling a resilient labor market. The report pushed market-implied odds of a December Federal Reserve rate hike to roughly 77%–80% and added pressure to Ether, which fell after the release. · 15 sources across the spectrum on IJR News.
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