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Odds of a December Rate Hike Jump to 77% After a Blowout Jobs Report
Traders priced in a three-in-four chance of a quarter-point increase after payrolls rose 165,000 and unemployment held at 4.1%, CME Group said.
- Nonfarm payrolls climbed by a seasonally adjusted 165,000 last month, way above the 59,000 expected by the Dow Jones consensus, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%.
- Treasury yields surged following the report, with the 10-year benchmark rising above 4.9%, while the CME Group's FedWatch tool shows Federal Reserve rate-hike odds climbed to almost 75% from 67% on Thursday.
- Broad hiring gains included 70,000 jobs in Professional and business services, 28,000 in Education and health services, and 39,000 in Trade, transportation and utilities. ADP Chief Economist Dr. Nela Richardson noted the data suggests "solid growth."
- While headline unemployment decreased, The U-6 increased to 7.9% from 7.6%, as Mortgage Bankers Association senior vice president Mike Fratantoni observed some individuals took part-time work when preferring full-time positions.
- Recent strong data supports expectations for a Fed rate hike in December, though Realtor senior economist Jake Krimmel noted uncertainty remains about subsequent months given earlier hot inflation prints.
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Odds of a December Rate Hike Jump to 77% After a Blowout Jobs Report
Stocks shrugged, Treasuries barely twitched, and yet the two-year yield told a different story. One hot jobs print has Fed watchers rethinking December, and the next CPI release could decide whether SPY holds its ground.
·Lakewood, United States
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Federal Reserve rate hike bets strengthen as US jobs growth beats estimates
Stronger than expected US jobs growth has revived expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate hike, with employers adding 165,000 jobs in October against estimates of 65,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while markets raised the probability of a quarter point hike to 85% and brought forward expectations of another increase.
·India
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Total News Sources74
Leaning Left3Leaning Right9Center10Last UpdatedBias Distribution45% Center
Bias Distribution
- 45% of the sources are Center
45% Center
14%
C 45%
R 41%
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