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Next Flashpoint In Iran War? The Bab Al-Mandab Strait Off Yemen's Coast

Huthi rebels control much of Yemen’s Red Sea coast and could disrupt 12% of global seaborne trade through Bab al-Mandab, a vital link to the Suez Canal and Indian Ocean.

  • On March 15, reports said Houthi rebels were demanding payments from tankers transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait, whose Yemeni coastline they largely control.
  • Although Iran backs the Huthis, Abdul Malik al-Huthi said on March 5 they are ready to strike but have not formally joined the Iran war, remaining autonomous despite Iranian backing.
  • Analysts including Gregory Brew said 'The Huthis' threat here is a real one' and 'This is very important for oil markets because it relieves pressure from the total shutting of the Persian Gulf'.
  • If the passage closes, another 6mn barrels per day of Saudi oil exports would be halted and at least 25mn b/d could be removed, deepening the 2026 oil shock.
  • Iran-Linked Fars warned that Huthi involvement could close Bab al-Mandab, and analysts note Tehran appears to manage escalation by keeping the Huthis in reserve, despite US and Israeli strikes degrading their capabilities.
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At the Red Sea there is still tension, but the Houthi militia threatens to attack oil tankers. It should wait for a suitable time, says Yemen expert Marieke Brandt. The Shiite militia is allied with the Iranians, but acts independently.

·Vienna, Austria
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After the blockade of the Strait of Hormus, the focus is on the Strait of Bab Al-Mandab. A blockade would have disastrous consequences.

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Times of India broke the news in India on Monday, March 16, 2026.
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