New Poll Shows Neck-and-Neck Senate Race, Double-Digit Lead for Governor in SC Midterms
Democrats hold a 10-point edge on the congressional ballot, but lower enthusiasm among key groups and redistricting could curb gains, the poll found.
- CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Sunday that recent data indicates a 71% chance of a House 'blowout' favoring Democrats, defined as a party securing at least 230 seats.
- President Donald Trump's net approval rating has declined to minus 35 points in Reuters-Ipsos polling, down from minus 24 in July, driving these Democratic projections.
- In the United States Senate, Enten projects a 57% chance that Democrats will secure at least 52 seats for a majority with room to spare, while Republicans have a 24% chance of winning 51 seats.
- Overall, there is an 81% probability that one party will emerge from Senate elections with a decisive majority, while Democrats need to net four seats across both chambers to flip control of Congress.
- As midterm elections approach next week, Enten cautioned that congressional polling has historically underestimated Republican support in 15 of 16 cycles since 1994, introducing uncertainty into projections.
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60 Articles
The Democrats need 1.5 million more votes for a majority in the House of Representatives in the upcoming US elections than in 2024, according to an analysis by the University of Groningen (RUG). This is due to a redrawing of electoral districts.
Prediction Markets Favor Democratic Congress Sweep
“The 2026 U.S. midterm election will be held a week from Tuesday, with the Republican Party looking to defend majorities in both the House and Senate, though Democrats are seen as two-to-one favorites to flip both chambers blue on prediction markets,” CNBC reports. “Speculators on platform Kalshi place a 63% chance that Democrats win control […]
The Democrats need 1.5 million more votes for a majority in the House of Representatives in the upcoming US elections than in 2024, according to an analysis by the University of Groningen (RUG). This is due to a redrawing of electoral districts.
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