US EditionNation's Largest Retail Group Forecasts 4.4% Gain in Retail Sales for This Year Despite Volatility
The National Retail Federation expects consumer resilience and solid employment to drive a 4.4% rise in U.S. retail sales to $5.6 trillion in 2026, excluding autos and restaurants.
- In 2026, the National Retail Federation, the nation's largest retail trade group, forecasts U.S. retail sales will rise 4.4 over 2025 to $5.6 trillion based on a new model with Oxford Economics.
- Mark Mathews, chief economist of the NRF, said wage growth, stronger household balance sheets and a solid employment market support consumer spending, with higher-income households driving most growth.
- Last year, retail sales grew 3.9% to $5.4 trillion, and the 2026 forecast exceeds the 3.6% average annual sales growth, presented in nominal terms excluding auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.
- On Wednesday, NRF said the repercussions of the Iran war on spending are too uncertain to include, noting oil prices have surged nearly 50% and gasoline prices are following, while Mathews warned the forecast could be revised in coming months.
- Labor Department data show U.S. wholesale prices rose 3.4% in February, and NRF economists expect inflation to fall by the third quarter while consumer sentiment remains downbeat.
15 Articles
15 Articles
Associated Press News
Nation's largest retail group forecasts 4.4% gain in retail sales for this year despite volatility
The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, is forecasting annual retail sales will grow at a faster clip this year than last year, citing consumers’ resilience despite lots of economic volatility.
Nation's largest retail group forecasts 4.4% gain in retail sales for this year
The National Retail Federation, the nation’s largest retail trade group, is forecasting annual retail sales will grow at a faster clip this year than last year, citing consumers’ resilience despite lots of economic volatility
NRF predicts 4.4% retail sales growth this year
WASHINGTON — The National Retail Federation predicts U.S. retail sales will increase by 4.4% in 2026, reaching $5.6 trillion, driven by steady consumer spending and resilient economic fundamentals.The forecast, developed with Oxford Economics, was presented at NRF’s State of Retail & the Consumer event and exceeds the 10-year pre-pandemic average growth rate of 3.6%.“Consumer spending was a steady and reliable engine of growth in 2025,” NRF Pres…
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