US EditionMore than half of all "long shot" bets on Polymarket pay off
- On Thursday, Polymarket announced a partnership with blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis to monitor platform activity and flag suspicious trading behavior based on patterns consistent with insider knowledge.
- A report from The Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that long-shot bets on military and defense outcomes win at a 52% rate, suggesting markets tied to government policy face information asymmetries.
- Analyzing $54.4 billion in cumulative volume across more than 435,000 markets, researchers found that fewer than 1% of wallets capture about half of all gains on Polymarket.
- Polymarket faces increasing competition from Wall Street titans like Robinhood and the on-chain platform Hyperliquid, while navigating growing scrutiny over insider trading and what constitutes gambling.
- CEO Shayne Coplan emphasizes building durable products, describing prediction markets as a 'very useful thermometer of the world' where trades are open, traceable, and accountable by design.
38 Articles
38 Articles
Green Beret Bets on Maduro Raid, Walks Into Legal Ambush
Federal prosecutors say a senior Green Beret used classified access to a Venezuela operation to turn Polymarket into a personal betting window, exposing a new insider-threat problem where sensitive missions can move money before they move headlines. #GreenBeret #SpecialForces #Polymarket #InsiderThreat #PredictionMarkets #Maduro #Venezuela #MilitaryJustice #DOJ #SOFREP
Polymarket expands trade monitoring after insider betting case tied to Maduro raid
Polymarket is stepping up oversight of trades after federal prosecutors charged a U.S. soldier with using classified information to bet on a military operation. The company is now rolling out new tools to help catch suspicious activity earlier. The move follows charges against an Army master sergeant who prosecutors say used non-public information to place bets on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Polymarket has partnered with …
Polymarket Polices Insider Trading as Lucrative Military Bets Raise Suspicions
Polymarket users have a 52% rate of winning long-shot wagers on military actions, a nonprofit research group recently found. That’s better than the likelihood of predicting a coin flip correctly, which, fun fact, is 51% because thumbs have a slightly biased wobble favoring the side the coin starts on. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective found that defense-related long-shot wagers, meaning bets of more than $2,500 on odds at or below 35%, won mo…
The New York Ledger
CointelegraphPolymarket Partners With Chainalysis to Detect Insider Trading Activity
Prediction market platform Polymarket is rolling out new monitoring and detection tools following backlash over alleged insider-informed betting activity, partnering with blockchain analytics company Chainalysis to strengthen oversight. Polymarket said Thursday it selected Chainalysis to provide an onchain market integrity solution aimed at monitoring trading activity and enforcing platform rules. The detection model is “designed to surface patt…
After soldier allegedly wins $400,000 betting on Maduro's capture, Polymarket says it's tightening security
In this photo illustration, a PolyMarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone with stock market percentages on the background. (Photo Illustration by Omar Marques/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) (NEW YORK) — One week after a special forces soldier was indicted on charges of using classified information to wager on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the prediction market Polymarket announced it is increasing its inter…
Polymarket taps Chainalysis to bring Wall Street-level oversight to crypto prediction markets
By partnering with Chainalysis to monitor its blockchain data in real-time, Polymarket is signaling to both users and regulators that it is serious about eliminating insider trading and market manipulation.
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