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March Madness Brackets: Expert Predictions for First-Round Upsets in the 2026 NCAA Men’s Tournament

The model highlights an average 26% upset chance for top eight NCAA first-round matchups, factoring in injuries, hot streaks, and team tempo differences.

Upset picks can be hard to spot in the early rounds of the tournament—see which underdogs Sports Illustrated’s experts see reaching the round of 32.

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USA Today broke the news in United States on Tuesday, March 17, 2026.
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