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Machine Learning Model Accurately Predicts Long-Term Risk of Type 2 Diabetes
The model used data from 3.4 million adults and showed strong accuracy for predicting type 2 diabetes risk up to 10 years ahead, researchers said.
Researchers presented a machine-learning model predicting 10-year Type 2 diabetes risk at the American Diabetes Association's 2026 Scientific Sessions in New Orleans on Friday.
Over 60% of U.S. adults possess risk factors for Type 2 diabetes, overwhelming current prevention programs; diabetes often develops gradually without clear warning signs, complicating early identification.
The retrospective study analyzed clinical data from over 3 million adults at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, achieving an area under the curve of 0.886 in high-risk identification.
"These findings represent a potential advancement over existing approaches," said lead author Luis A. Rodriguez, PhD, MPH, RD, enabling earlier, more precise detection for clinicians.
Researchers intend to test the model in clinical settings to evaluate whether it increases prevention program engagement and reduces diabetes incidence.