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Iran conflict forces central banks into sharp policy rethink

Emerging Asian central banks face pressure to balance inflation and growth amid a 30% oil price surge driven by the West Asia conflict, IMF warns of rising global inflation.

  • On Monday , share markets plunged and the U.S. dollar rose as oil surged past $110 a barrel, stoking fears of prolonged West Asia conflict.
  • Nomura Research Institute finds a $110 crude oil price for a year could shave 0.39 percentage points off growth, Georgieva warned a 10% oil rise would add 40 basis points to inflation.
  • Emerging Asian central banks are intervening in FX markets and will infuse liquidity to support currencies, with the Reserve Bank of India focusing on growth support,
  • Many central banks face a difficult dilemma as they balance growth support with inflation control, and South Korea's central bank could adopt a more hawkish stance if inflation stays above target, constraining the Bank of Japan.
  • Sustained oil price hikes risk de-anchoring inflation expectations in Australia, prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates higher for longer, while policymakers may tolerate short-term inflation to avoid tightening into a slowing global economy.
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Lean Right

The challenge is particularly sensitive to the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which has come following a high interest rate — an exception in the region.

·Brazil
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The HinduThe Hindu
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Lean Left

Iran conflict forces Asian central banks into sharp policy rethink

Asian central banks face tough choices on interest rates amid rising oil prices and the escalating Iran conflict, impacting growth and inflation.

·India
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Modern Diplomacy broke the news in on Monday, March 9, 2026.
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