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Hormuz Closure Could Push Oil to $200 per Barrel, Wood Mackenzie Warns

The consultancy said prolonged Gulf disruptions could keep global LNG markets tight and lift diesel and jet fuel prices toward $300 a barrel.

  • Wood Mackenzie reported yesterday that Brent crude prices could approach US$200/bbl by end-2026 as global supply shortages persist and more than 11 million barrels per day of Gulf production remains curtailed.
  • The Strait of Hormuz blockage has disrupted energy flows since late February, with Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie, warning that prolonged closure would become "more than an energy crisis."
  • CEO John Christmann stated APA Corp has "significantly improved capital efficiency" while maintaining resilient production volumes in the U.S. Permian Basin and Egypt, positioning the company to benefit from elevated prices.
  • The global economy could contract by 0.4% in 2026, marking the third recession this century, as energy-importing countries accelerate electrification to reduce dependence on oil and gas.
  • LNG markets face prolonged disruption, with Wood Mackenzie analysts warning that some of the Gulf region's 85 Mtpa of supply could be permanently lost if recurring tensions sustain disruptions through end-2026.
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The New York Ledger broke the news on Wednesday, May 20, 2026.
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