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IMF says AI investment keeps global growth around 3%, with major Asia benefits

The IMF warned AI could lift growth while exposing markets to a correction, cyberattacks and higher inflation if profits or investment fade.

  • On Monday, the International Monetary Fund raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.0%, citing robust artificial intelligence infrastructure investment sustaining the world economy despite energy supply shocks.
  • Surging AI infrastructure investment is fueling massive debt issuance, with hyperscalers now accounting for 10% of global investment-grade bond issuance, up from less than 1% in 2024. The IMF warned this competition with sovereign bonds pressures already stressed financial markets.
  • In its Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF identified an AI-driven market correction as one of three "salient risks" representing "plausible near-term catalysts for a sharp tightening of financial conditions." Rising leverage and "circular financing" could amplify any downturn.
  • IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva described AI as a "slow-moving tsunami" that could affect 40% of jobs worldwide, warning the shift from labor to capital threatens entry-level employment for young workers.
  • World Bank President Ajay Banga offered a contrasting perspective, emphasizing "small AI" tools that do not depend on large language models to drive productivity gains for farmers and healthcare systems in emerging markets.
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한겨레 broke the news on Sunday, October 4, 2026.
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